RSQUndergraduate courses
Risk Simulation and Queuing
Deciding under uncertainty — Monte Carlo risk simulation, queuing theory for waiting lines, and decision trees for choosing between discrete alternatives.
- Introductory
- 4 weeks
- Approx. 15 hours per week
- 3 semester hours
About this course
This course covers three modeling techniques for decisions made in the presence of risk or uncertainty. You will learn how to construct and implement simulations that model the uncertainty in decision input variables — price, demand and the like — and to accompany a single estimate with a risk interval of the other outcomes that were possible; how to model the variability in arrivals over time, whether customers, cars at a toll plaza or data packets, and the queues that follow, using queuing theory; and how to employ decision trees to turn what the models tell you into an actual decision.
Who this course is for
Risk managers, financial analysts, project managers, operations managers, and others with responsibility for specifying, creating, deploying or interpreting risk analysis and queuing models. Users of risk analysis or queuing software who need to attain a more solid grounding in the subject.
What you will learn
6 outcomes
By the end of this course, you will be able to:
- Use simulation to describe and measure the impact of uncertainty on decision problems
- Use optimization techniques together with simulation to mitigate and manage risk
- Understand how queuing models are used to describe and manage the behavior of waiting lines
- Use payoff tables, decision trees and multi-criteria scoring models to analyze decision problems
- Read simulation output — risk profiles, sensitivity analysis and tornado charts
- Value sample information before paying for it, using conditional probabilities and expected value of information
Week by week
4-Week curriculum overview
This curriculum is identical across all start dates. Expand a week to explore the topics covered.
- Weeks
- 4
- Your week
- Approx. 15 hours
- Level
- Introductory
Risk analysisWeek 1
- Simulation
- Interpreting output
- Implementing and optimizing the model
Advanced simulationWeek 2
- Poisson distribution, arrival rate
- Service rate
- Operating characteristics
QueuingWeek 3
- Mastering complexity
- Payoff matrix
- Decision rules
- Expected monetary value
- Expected regret
- Expected value of information
- Decision trees
Multistage decision problemsWeek 4
- Risk profile
- Sensitivity analysis
- Tornado charts
- Using sample information
- Conditional probabilities
- Utility functions
Instructors
Expert-Led Guidance
Each cohort is led by dedicated instructors and assistant teachers who actively lead weekly discussions, provide personalized feedback and grade your assignments.
Dr. Cliff Ragsdale
Cliff T. Ragsdale is Bank of America Professor of Business Information Technology at Virginia Tech. His primary research interests involve applications of quantitative modeling techniques to managerial decision making problems using microcomputers. Dr. Ragsdale has served as a consultant for a variety of organizations including General Mills, The World Bank, Frontline Systems, and Dominion Energy. His research has been published in Decision Sciences, Naval Research Logistics, Operations Research Letters, Computers and Operations Research, OMEGA, Personal Financial Planning, Financial Services Review, Decision Support Systems, and a number of other scholarly journals. He is a Fellow of Decision Sciences Institute and a member of INFORMS. He has also served as the faculty advisor for the Virginia Tech student chapter of APICS and on the Board of Directors for the Southwest Chapter of APICS.
Before you start
What you need
Everything to have to hand before the first week. Open a row for the detail.
Course Format & Schedule
This is a 4-week, 100% online, asynchronous course.
- No mandatory live sessions: Log in and complete your work at times that fit your schedule.
- Weekly Releases: At the start of each week, you will receive new lecture materials and answer keys for the previous week's exercises.
- Interactive Community: Work through exercises, submit assignments, and engage with your instructor and peers via a private discussion board.
Homework
Short-answer questions testing the concepts, and guided data analysis problems using software.
Texts
Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, ninth edition, by Cliff Ragsdale, ordered from the publisher. The same text carries you through Optimization — Linear Programming and Integer and Nonlinear Programming and Network Flow, so one copy covers all three. Also available at Amazon here. The Kindle version is not recommended.
Software
The course uses Analytic Solver Platform for Education software by Frontline systems. Analytic Solver Platform for Education is an add-in for Excel that performs risk analysis, simulation, optimization, decision trees and other analytical methods. With the purchase or rental of the book, you will have a course code that will enable you to download and install the software for 140 days. If you do not have such a license, a license is also available for course registrants through LearnStatistics. Please do not install the regular public trial copy of the software on your own; when the course starts we will provide you with the complete installation instructions to obtain the appropriate copy of the software.
FAQ
Do I need to take an optimization course first?This course
No. The only thing assumed is that you can drive a spreadsheet. Simulation, queuing and decision trees are each introduced from the beginning, and the optimization used alongside simulation in week one is set up for you.
How much probability theory do I need?This course
Less than you might expect. You will work with the Poisson distribution for arrivals, with conditional probabilities when valuing sample information, and with utility functions at the end, but each is introduced where it is needed rather than assumed.
Is there a money-back or satisfaction guarantee?Every course
We handle cancellation and refund requests on an individual basis. If a course is not meeting your expectations or your circumstances change, please reach out to our team (support@learnstatistics.org) so we can work with you on a solution.
Can I transfer to a later start date or withdraw after the course begins?Every course
Yes. If you need to defer your enrollment to a future start date, withdraw mid-course, or transfer your seat to a colleague, please contact us directly. We address these requests flexibly on a case-by-case basis.
Who teaches the course?Every course
Each cohort is led by dedicated instructors and assistant teachers who actively lead weekly discussions, provide personalized feedback and grade your assignments.
Something not answered here? Ask us before you book — and the terms set out what a purchase covers.
Credit, and where it counts
This course carries a verified figure of 3 semester hours. A credit recommendation from the American Council on Education says what a course is worth; the institution receiving it decides whether to award it.
Anyone can take this subject: there is no application, and you do not have to be studying at a university. It also counts toward a degree at Thomas Edison State University, which decides what to award for it. The full position — including the limits each university publishes is on its own page, and worth reading before you buy.